Tonight, or last night if I’m not able to finish this in one go, the nominations for the 54th Grammy Awards went up. And while the Grammys don’t have the same heft as, say, the Oscars, where’s the fun in being a music geek if we don’t make predictions, eh? The full, 74 award list is here.

1. Record of the Year
Adele – Rolling in the Deep
Bon Iver – Holocene
Bruno Mars – Grenade
Mumford & Sons – The Cave
Katy Perry – Firework

Prediction: “Best Record” is for what song has the best production; which song has the best sound. “Firework” is the only one I can take out of the running without too much thought; the production is a little too thick, and the Grammys favor rustic sounds (last year’s winner was “Need You Now”). I’m going to give this one to “Rolling in the Deep”, but “The Cave” or “Holocene” winning wouldn’t surprise me, either.

Album of the Year
Adele – 21
Foo Fighters – Wasting Light
Lady Gaga – Born This Way
Bruno Mars – Doo-Wops & Hooligans
Rihanna – Loud

Prediction: Let’s start with the obvious: Where the fuck is Kanye West’s My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy? Came out late last year, universally loved, topped multiple year-end lists across the mainsteram-indie spectrum? Anyway, the obvious choice here is, again, Adele, but after getting kind of snubbed twice, Gaga shouldn’t be ignored here, either. Also worth noting are the Foos: they have the highest Metacritic score of the bunch, and the Grammys were favoring guitars last year when Arcade Fire won with The Suburbs. But still, I’m giving this one to Gaga, Foo Fighters and Adele take second.

3. Song of the Year
Kanye West – All of the Lights
Mumford & Sons – The Cave
Bruno Mars – Grenade
Bon Iver – Holocene
Adele – Rolling in the Deep

Prediction: My gut instinct here says “All of the Lights” most, and “Grenade” least of all. At the same time, though, “The Cave” and “Rolling in the Deep” have a strong draw, and both have AwardBait qualities (vocal technicality, intricate instrumentation, big emotions). Part of me wants to throw this one to Mumford & Sons, but I’m not sure they have the pull to come through. This one goes to “Rolling in the Deep”, “All of the Lights” and “The Cave” as a backup.

4. Best New Artist
The Band Perry
Bon Iver
J. Cole
Nicki Minaj
Skrillex

Prediction: I know my bias is showing, but the sentence, “Grammy award winning artist Skrillex” is just too grim to be a reality. This one goes to Bon Iver.

5. Best Pop Vocal Album
Adele – 21
Cee Lo Green – The Lady Killer
Lady Gaga – Born This Way
Bruno Mars – Doo-wops & Hooligans
Rihanna – Loud

Prediction: Minus a Foos album and plus one Cee Lo, this is Album of the Year all over again. I think in the pop realm, the category’s a bit more even; this one could go any way, honestly. Gaga for the win, but Adele could have it, too.

6. Best Rock Album
Jeff Beck – Rock N’ Roll Party Honoring Les Paul
Foo Fighters – Wasting Light
Kings of Leon – Come Around Sundown
Red Hot Chili Peppers – I’m With You
Wilco – The Whole Love

Prediction: Compared to last year, we have a relatively young bunch in this category. “I’m With You” was nothing special, nor was “Come Around Sundown”. “Rock N’ Roll Party” is such an obvious outsider, I’m tempted to peg it as a winner because it’s a well-respected artist doing the classics in homage of a legend. Actually, yeah, let’s go with that one, with the Foos/Wilco on backup.

7. Best Alternative Album
Bon Iver- Bon Iver
Death Cab For Cutie – Codes & Keys
Foster the People – Torches
My Morning Jacket – Circuital
Radiohead – The King of Limbs

Prediction: Bon Iver seems like the obvious choice, given the high nominations Bon Iver has all around, but consider that last year, Arcade Fire won Album of the Year, but lost here to The Black Keys. Radiohead will probably get this one, or Bon Iver, either way.

8. Best Rap Album
Jay-Z/Kanye West – Watch the Throne
Lil Wayne – Tha Carter IV
Lupe Fiasco – Lasers
Nicki Minaj – Pink Friday
Kanye West – My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy.

Prediction: Open and shut case, MBDTF walks away with it clean. But realistically, I’m fine with any non Carter IV entries getting it.

9. Best Country Album
Jason Aldean – My Kinda Party
Eric Church – Chief
Lady Antebellum – Own the Night
George Strait – Here For a Good Time
Taylor Swift – Speak Now

Prediction: Swift stormed the Grammys with Fearless, but Strait’s got years of prestige on these youngsters, and they’re the only two major contenders in the category. Aldean and Church promote middle of the road “country boy” material, and Own the Night was, by most accounts, coasting by off Need You Now‘s success. Strait or Swift, either way; Speak Now threatens to be underrated. Well, as underrated as you can get when you sell a million in a week.

10. Producer of the Year, Non-Classical
Danger Mouse
Paul Epworth
The Smeezingtons
Ryan Tedder
Butch Vig

Prediction: Danger Mouse could make it two in a row, but Epworth has Adele under his belt, and The Smeezingtons have done some of the freshest pop production in years. Butch Vig might as well get a Lifetime Achievement, and his work on Wasting Light was top notch besides. The Smeezingtons take first, Vig takes second.

So, there’s my list of guesses. Watch the Grammys in February to see how wrong I am!